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College Basketball

Gonzaga vs San Francisco: Odds, Line, and Picks (3/7/22)

The West Coast Conference Tournament is underway, and now that the first few rounds have concluded, it’s time for Gonzaga to get into the mix. The number one seed will take on the fourth-seeded team in San Francisco. Gonzaga comes into the game as a heavy favorite as the number one ranked team in the nation. Can San Francisco pull off the upset, or is Gonzaga destined for West Coast glory? 

In the West Coast Conference Tournament, there are only two games each round, starting with the lowest-ranked teams. As a result, Gonzaga is playing their first game of the tournament, and San Francisco is playing their second. San Francisco won 75-63 over BYU in the last round to secure their spot in the semi-finals of the West Coast Conference Tournament. It was an impressive victory, but it is yet to be seen if they can compete with a team as strong as Gonzaga. 

As we mentioned above, Gonzaga is the number one ranked team in the nation. They come into the playoffs with a 13-1 in-conference record, and a 24-3 record overall. However, they’re limping into the tournament having lost their last game. Their last game of the season saw Saint Mary’s hand them their only in-conference loss of the season.  

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Conversely, San Francisco has already played a playoff game and should be ready for their game tonight. They had a 10-6 record against teams in their conference, and a 24-8 record overall. They come into the game tonight with some momentum, but will Gonzaga prove to be too tough an opponent? 

Gonzaga vs San Francisco Odds 

Coming into the game, you would expect that Gonzaga would be a big favorite, and that is the case. Here are the odds, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. 

  • Spread: Gonzaga -14 San Francisco +14
  • Total: Gonzaga U 154 San Francisco O 154
  • Money Line: Gonzaga -1125 San Francisco +700

Clearly, the odds favor Gonzaga, so does that mean you should place a big bet on the underdog? 

Gonzaga Betting Outlook 

Before we get started, it’s important to note that while Gonzaga is the heavy favorite to win, that doesn’t necessarily mean it makes sense to bet on them. In fact, in this situation, betting on Gonzaga to win makes almost no sense. If you bet on them, you will get -1125 odds, which means your payout will be extremely low relative to the amount you bet.  

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For those odds to be worth it, there would need to be almost no chance of San Francisco pulling off the upset. Yes, Gonzaga is the number one ranked team in the nation, but it’s not as if San Francisco is a division 3 punching bag. They’re ranked 19th in the nation, and as a result, they should put up a fight. 

San Francisco Betting Outlook

The money line puts San Francisco in an interesting spot. The chance of them pulling off an upset is not great, but you are getting tremendous odds at +700. If San Francisco can pull off an upset and you bet on them to do so, you will make a tremendous amount of money.  

So, the question is, can San Francisco defeat Gonzaga? Yes, they can, but it’s going to take a big performance from the entire. They’re coming into the game off a couple of wins, including an impressive victory over BYU in the last round of the tournament. Conversely, Gonzaga lost their last game of the regular season. So, if there was a time to beat Gonzaga, it’s now. 

Gonzaga vs San Francisco Prediction 

It’s difficult to look at these two teams and bet against Gonzaga, but we still want to take a deeper look at the matchup. If you just look at the records of the two teams, Gonzaga is the heavy favorite. While Gonzaga performed only slightly better than San Francisco in out-of-conference matchups, they were significantly better when playing West Coast rivals.  

These teams faced each other twice during the season, and Gonzaga was victorious both times. They first faced on January 20th, with Gonzaga topping San Francisco by a score of 78-62. They played again just a few weeks ago on February 24th, and this time Gonzaga won by a score of 89-73. Neither game was very close, and as a result, there isn’t a whole lot for San Francisco to hold onto there. 

The advanced stats don’t paint a pretty picture for San Francisco either. Gonzaga is ranked higher in almost every category. Their adjusted offensive efficiency is 2nd in the nation, and San Francisco is ranked 36th. Gonzaga then ranks 5th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency, whereas San Francisco ranks 19th. San Francisco is impressive in both categories, but Gonzaga is elite on both sides of the floor. 

With that in mind, we’re going to predict a victory for Gonzaga tonight. It’s not impossible for San Francisco to win, but it’s going to be an uphill battle. Our prediction is that Gonzaga will win by a score of 85-70. So, we think you should bet the over of the total, and on Gonzaga’s side of the spread. The spread and total are where you can make money here.

Where to Watch 

You can watch this game on ESPN tonight at 9 PM EST.

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