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College Basketball

Houston vs Memphis: Odds, Line, and Picks (3/13/22)

The college basketball conference tournaments are almost at an end, but there’s still one big day of basketball to come. Today we will watch the finals matchups unfold for several major conferences in the NCAA. Unfortunately, you probably cannot watch all of them. So, we thought we’d take a look at the game that should be most exciting. That game will feature Memphis and Houston as they face off to determine the AAC champion. 

While there were not any major upsets in the AAC tournament, these are not the two teams that you would expect. Rather, it’s not surprising that Houston is here as the number one seed. However, Memphis is the number three seed, and as a result, needed to pull off an upset to get here. They did so in the semifinals, defeating SMU 70-63. 

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Even though the top two seeds in the AAC did not make the finals, we should still have a good game on our hands. While Houston is the higher seed, they lost to Memphis both times they played this season. So, can Memphis pull off another upset, or will Houston take their spot as the AAC champions? 

Houston vs Memphis Odds 

If you are interested in sports betting, you should know that finals games can be some of the hardest to predict. They are usually between two elite teams, and as a result, the odds are close. There is rarely an obvious team to bet on, and that is the case here. You can find the betting odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook below. 

  • Spread: Houston -4 Memphis +4
  • Total: Houston U 133.5 Memphis O 133.5
  • Money Line: Houston -165 Memphis +145

As you can see, Houston is the favorite, but it isn’t by a significant margin. That opens up the possibility to bet on whichever team you think has the upper hand. 

Houston Betting Outlook 

Let’s start by looking at the bettering favorite, Houston. They come into the game as the number two team in the nation, and the best team in the AAC. With accolades like that, you would expect them to be a big favorite, especially when you consider that the number two team in the conference is already eliminated. However, they’re only a -145 favorite. The lower odds are probably a result of the regular season record between these teams. Regardless, you are getting decent odds to place a bet on Houston to win.  

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The spread is set at -4 for Houston, and as a result, it should be tempting to bet the spread if you think Houston is going to win. A victory by more than four points is not guaranteed, but it’s a reasonable bet if you favor Houston to win. Even a close game can be decided by more than four points in the end. 

The total is where it gets interesting. It is set at 133.5, which is around where you would expect the game to finish. The oddsmakers did a good job here, so you have a tough decision to make. The two games played between these teams this season ended with total scores of 128 and 136. One score went over the line, and the other went under. Both teams are great on offense and defense, and as a result, your bet should come down to what you think is going to happen tonight. We lean towards betting the under because while they are both good offensive teams, they are both slightly better on defense. 

Memphis Betting Outlook 

Memphis is in a good position to potentially secure an upset. While that is good for Memphis, it is not great for people that wanted to bet on Memphis. Unfortunately, the reasons that they could potentially pull off an upset are rather obvious, and as a result, the oddsmakers were able to adjust the odds accordingly. You get +145 odds when you bet on Memphis to win. They already defeated Houston twice this season, including in the final game of the season. As a result, a bet on Memphis is reasonable. 

Houston vs Kansas Prediction 

When trying to make a prediction, it’s impossible to ignore regular-season results. Houston was the superior team overall, finishing with a 15-3 in-conference record and 28-5 overall. Conversely, Memphis finished with a 13-5 in-conference record and 21-9 overall. Houston has a clear edge here, but what makes things interesting is the record of these teams in head-to-head matchups. They played twice during the season, and Memphis won both times. Memphis first defeated Houston on February 12th by a score of 69-59. They then won again in the final game of the regular season on March 6th by a score of 75-61. Neither game was very close, and as a result, Memphis appears to have an edge. 

Recent form is not very different between these two teams as both teams only have one loss in recent memory. Furthermore, neither team has had a scare in the postseason.  

As a result, the only other things to look at before we make our prediction are the advanced stats. They show that Houston has a minor, but notable edge on both offense and defense. 

With that in mind, we’re going to predict that Houston avenges their previous losses, defeating Memphis by the score of 68-66. It will come down to the final minutes, but in the end, we think Houston will come out on top. 

Where to Watch 

You can watch this game play out on ESPN at 3:15 PM EST.

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