College Basketball

Iowa vs Michigan: Odds, Line, and Picks (3/3/22)

College basketball fans have a lot to be happy about at this time of year. The season is coming to a close, which means that March Madness is just around the corner. However, before we can get to that part of the season, we need to finish the regular season. Tonight there is a matchup between the Iowa Hawkeyes and the Michigan Wolverines. 

Coming into the game, Iowa is 4th in the Big Ten with an in-conference record of 11-7, and 21-8 overall. Conversely, Michigan is in 8th with a record of 10-8 in-conference and 16-12 overall. With two games remaining on the schedule for both teams, this is a big game for both groups.  

The standings in the Big Ten are split up into three sections at the moment. There are three teams that are secure at the top of the standings, there’s a big group from 4th to 9th that’s split up by two wins, and then there’s the bottom group. Iowa and Michigan both sit in the middle group, and while they are separated by four positions in the standings, only one in-conference win separates them. 

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The goal for these two teams should be to secure their spots in the top half of the conference. Not only will that give them a better chance of performing in the Big Ten Tournament, but it increases their chances of qualifying for March Madness. 

Iowa vs Michigan Odds 

The odds are interesting for this matchup because you would think that Iowa would be the betting favorite as the higher seed, but that’s not the case. Instead, Michigan is currently the betting favorite. This is likely influenced by the fact that Michigan is playing at home. Here are the odds, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. 

  • Spread: Iowa +2 Michigan -2
  • Total: Iowa O 154.5 Michigan U 154.5
  • Money Line: Iowa +100 Michigan -120

Michigan is currently the betting favorite, but should they be? Iowa is the higher seed, so they could certainly be a good bet. 

Iowa Betting Outlook 

Coming into the game, Iowa is hot. They are on a four-game winning streak and appear to be rounding into form at the right time. However, many of their recent wins have been against lower-end teams like Nebraska and Northwestern. We haven’t seen them play a high-end team in a while. Additionally, their last loss was against Michigan on February 17th.  

With all that in mind, betting on Iowa makes sense here. Even if their recent teams were against weak teams, they’re still wins. You also have to consider that you get better odds betting on Iowa. They’re the betting underdog, and in a matchup where the teams are very even, you should bet on the underdog.  

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It also makes sense to bet on Iowa’s side of the total because these are two very offensive teams. With the over set at 154.5, there’s a good chance that they will exceed that. The last matchup between these two teams finished with a score of 84-79, or 163 total points. Betting the over makes sense here. 

As for the spread, if you’re betting on Iowa, you should bet on their side of the spread. Set at +2, it’s likely that whichever team wins will also hit their spread requirements. 

Michigan Betting Outlook 

Michigan comes into the game as the betting favorite, despite looking like the underdog on paper. As a result, it’s hard to justify betting on them. -120 odds are not terrible, but they don’t make sense when Michigan is the underdog on paper. If the odds were reversed, we would recommend betting on Michigan, but that’s not the case. 

As the home team, Michigan has an advantage with a 10-4 home record. However, they’re facing an Iowa team that is one of the best on the road with a 5-5 record. Furthermore, while Iowa is coming into the game with a four-game win streak, Michigan is coming into the match having only won three of their last six games. 

You can bet on Michigan if you believe in them, but it makes more sense to bet on Iowa. These two teams are too evenly matched to bet on the favorite. 

Iowa vs Michigan Prediction 

There’s a lot to consider when making a prediction. Their records need to be factored in, and in that area, Iowa has the advantage. However, it’s also important to consider where the two teams are playing. The home team usually has the advantage, and as a result, Michigan gets the edge there. While Iowa is a good road team, home court advantage could still be a factor. 

Looking at the advanced stats, these teams are very similar defensively. Their adjusted defensive efficiency is tied at 98.4, which places them 72nd and 73rd, respectively. They aren’t great defensive teams, but they are stellar offensively. Iowa gets the edge as they are ranked 7th in the nation, but Michigan is still impressive as the 16th ranked offense. 

With that in mind, you should bet the over, and we are going to predict an 85-82 win for Iowa. Iowa is hot coming into the game, and while Michigan needs a win, we think that Iowa is going to pay back their previous loss. 

Where to Watch 

The Iowa vs Michigan game will be held at 9 PM tonight at the Crisler Center in Ann Arbor, Michigan. You can watch it on TV on FS1.

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