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Michigan vs Indiana: Odds, Line, and Picks (3/10/22)

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Most of you are probably going to wait until tonight to watch college basketball, but if you want to catch the best game of the day, you’ll need to turn on the TV this morning. That is right, the best game of the game will be at 11:30 AM EST between Indiana and Michigan. They face off in the second round of the Big Ten Tournament, with the winner earning a date with Illinois, the number one seed in the conference. 

Michigan and Indiana are the 8th and 9th ranked teams in the Big Ten, respectively. As closely-ranked teams, you should expect a close matchup. Indiana had a season that was on par with how they have performed recently, but Michigan had a disappointing year. They finished 1st in the Big Ten last season and made it all the way to NCAA Elite Eight. As a result, they will be looking to exorcise some demons against Indiana this morning. 

The problem for Michigan is that they simply do not have as good a team as they had in recent years. Their record was underwhelming in-conference, finishing the season 11-9. They didn’t fare much better outside their conference, finishing the year with a 17-13 overall record. While Indiana is the lower seed because of their weaker in-conference record, they actually performed better overall with an 18-12 record. 

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So, will the odds project this game as close as it appears to be, or will they heavily favor Michigan after their impressive season last year? 

Michigan vs Indiana Odds 

As we mentioned above, this should be a close matchup. These two teams finished with similar records, and as a result, there isn’t a whole lot separating them. The odds below are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. 

  • Spread: Michigan -3.5 Indiana +3.5
  • Total: Michigan U 136.5 Indiana O 136.5
  • Money Line: Michigan -150 Indiana +130

As you can see, DraftKings has Michigan as the favorite, but not by much. As a result, it is reasonable to bet on both teams. 

Michigan Betting Outlook 

Betting on the favorite is not always a great decision, but that doesn’t mean it’s always a bad one. Here you have an interesting choice when looking at the two teams. The odds are so close that it is reasonable to bet on Michigan. At -150 odds, you have the opportunity to make a decent profit. However, you should only do so if you are confident in a Michigan win. If you are going back and forth between the two teams, it is better to bet on Indiana.

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The spread for Michigan is set at -3.5, which indicates that it will be a close game. If you bet on Michigan, it’s reasonable to also bet on their side of the spread. The chances of winning the game by less than three points are not high, so betting on their side of the spread makes sense.  

Finally, the total for Michigan is set at U 136.5 Again, DraftKings has set a good line because that looks pretty accurate for the expected total points. That being said, the one game this season between the two teams saw 142 points scored. As a result, betting the under might not make sense.  

Indiana Betting Outlook 

In a close game like this one, betting on the underdog makes a lot of sense. This game could go either way and as a result, it makes sense to put some money on the team with better odds. In this case, Indiana is the betting underdog, receiving +130 odds. In a match between two closely ranked teams, you have a chance of making a decent amount of money betting on Indiana.  

Michigan vs Indiana Prediction 

There are several things we need to consider before we make a prediction. First, we want to look at the records of these two teams. Michigan had an 11-9 in-conference record, and 17-13 overall. Conversely, Indiana had a 9-11 in-conference record, and 18-12 overall. So, Michigan performed better in-conference, but Indiana performed better overall. With that in mind, the game is played between in-conference teams, and as a result, that record is more relevant.  

It’s also essential that we look at each team’s form. Both teams received a bye through the first round of the tournament, and as a result, they haven’t played since the regular season. Michigan had a middling end to the season, finishing 4-4 in their last eight games. However, Indiana played much worse. They finished their season on a two-game losing streak, and 2-7 in their last nine games. It’s also important to note that these teams played once during the season. The game took place on January 23rd, and Michigan won 80-62. 

Looking at the advanced stats, it’s clear that these teams have opposite styles. Michigan is one of the best offensive teams in the country, but they’re middling on defense. Conversely, Indiana is middling on offense, but they’re elite on defense. So, the game will come down to whether Michigan’s offense can overcome Indiana’s Defense. 

With that in mind, we’re going to place our bets on Michigan winning 78-69. Indiana hasn’t been playing well lately, and we think that will continue to play out today. That scoreline means that we think you should bet the over and on Michigan’s side of the spread. 

Where to Watch 

You can watch Indiana play Michigan at 11:30 AM EST on BTN.

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